Posts from — November 2006

• Milton Friedman’s Classic Essay in Positive Economics
  Required reading for anyone thinking of doing a phd in economics.
  (tags: PhD Readings economics methodology History Classics)

• PrSAT: A Decision Procedure for the Probability Calculus
  Nice Mathematica implementation, perhaps useful later on
  (tags: mathematica)

by John F. Geweke, Joel L. Horowitz, Hashem Pesaran
(November 2006)

Abstract:
As a unified discipline, econometrics is still relatively young and has been transforming and expanding very rapidly over the past few decades. Major advances have taken place in the analysis of cross sectional data by means of semi-parametric and non-parametric techniques. Heterogeneity of economic relations across individuals, firms and industries is increasingly acknowledged and attempts have been made to take them into account either by integrating out their effects or by modeling the sources of heterogeneity when suitable panel data exists. The counterfactual considerations that underlie policy analysis and treatment evaluation have been given a more satisfactory foundation. New time series econometric techniques have been developed and employed extensively in the areas of macroeconometrics and finance. Non-linear econometric techniques are used increasingly in the analysis of cross section and time series observations. Applications of Bayesian techniques to econometric problems have been given new impetus largely thanks to advances in computer power and computational techniques. The use of Bayesian techniques have in turn provided the investigators with a unifying framework where the tasks of forecasting, decision making, model evaluation and learning can be considered as parts of the same interactive and iterative process; thus paving the way for establishing the foundation of “real time econometrics”. This paper attempts to provide an overview of some of these developments.
[Download the paper here]

Great Paper. All EC6101 students should take a look at it. It provides a comprehensive overview of modern econometrics. Very nice.

Link via The New Economist

• Getting to Grips with Latex - Latex Tutorials by Andrew Roberts @ School of Computing, University of Leeds
  (tags: documentation howto LaTeX Reference tex writing)
• [cond-mat/0606805] Temperature in complex networks
  interesting paper, related to Foley’s thermodynamic work
  (tags: PhD)
• Paul Vitanyi
  Genius.
  (tags: Algorithms Ko)
• Entropy and Information Theory
  Free Text for a class on Probability/Economic Entropy
  (tags: books Ebooks entropy free math physics Foley)

Due to some last minute scheduling arrangements, next Tuesday’s lecture is cancelled, and I’ll give a makeup lecture on Monday December 5th from 4-5pm in EO02, in the normal tutorial hour.

• How to Fill the Gap between Fractals and Stochastic Context-Free Grammars?
  Uses Lagrangians and Context-Free Grammars
  (tags: PHD)
• Marx and Engels Collected Works
  PDFs of the Major Marxist works of the 20th Century.
  (tags: PhD interestingpeople Internet Classics)
• Economic Manuscripts: Capital Vol. I - Chapter One
  The fundamental nature of the commodity.
  (tags: UL Readings Marx interestingpeople)
• BoingBoing: Bruce Sterling SIGGRAPH 2004 speech “When Blobjects Rule the Earth”
  (tags: and blog collaboration Data History Internet PhD philosophy Political reading Reference trends web)
• William Krehm: Introducing the Entropy Concept to Economics
  Early (and incorrect) application of the Entropy concept to economics
• Combinatorial Geometry, Concentration, Real Algebraic Geometry
  Cool Papers for a Course on the Subject
  (tags: UL Readings Teaching)
• Probability Theory With Applications in Science and Engineering by Edwin Jaynes
  Full Text of Maximum Entropy Classic
  (tags: books free math People science maths PhD)

Watch the lecture as a movie or download the handouts I gave in class by right-clicking the link below and choosing ’save target as’

Download EC4333_Lecture8_MandA_handout.pdf

• tutorials.html
  (tags: programming tutorial tutorials MATLAB)
• Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation, by Kenneth Train, Cambridge University Press, 2002
  Excellent Grad level metrics book
  (tags: books Course discrete economics PhD programming tools video)
• Advanced Microeconometrics
  (tags: economics econometrics)

Please answer all questions below and submit them in hardcopy to the Departmental Office, EM023 and by email to esmeralda.gassie@ul.ie by Monday, December 4th at 5pm.

–
1. The CAP. There are 3 main economic costs associated with the imposition of a large scale and long term price support like the CAP. Briefly describe them, using graphical analysis where appropriate.
2. Costs and Benefits of a Single Currency. The creation of a single currency imposes many costs and benefits on developed economies. Describe 2 costs and 2 benefits to an economy of joining a single currency system.

–

Abstract

Game theory is the study of strategic interactions. This course is about asking what happens when people or things with different incentives or motivations interact \textit{against} one another to achieve their own best outcome. It has become the underpinning of evolutionary theory, economics, business processes, international relations and is the subject of major motion pictures, like `A Beautiful Mind’. In this course we will discover the laws underpinning every game and study specific examples of different types of games taken using examples from literature, the movies, board games, economics, molecular biology, international politics, business studies, dating, game shows, government funding opportunities and, of all things, fuel injection mechanisms in cars and the songs of the Dunes in the Sahel. Students who like mathematics will enjoy the course, and those who are less adept at maths but who enjoy playing constructively will benefit from taking this course.
[Download Course Outline]

[Download Course Pack]

Lecture notes for the Mathematica Course for the Newschool are here in mathematica notebook format and in .pdf format. The main set of notes is in .nb, as people may need access to some of the code I’ve written in the appendices for other things  they might like to do. The lecture notes are in .pdf because I think you should go through the tedium of typing the functions in to learn the syntax, as opposed to just shift-entering your way through a notebook in 10 seconds and not learning anything about the system
[Download Course Outline ver 0.2.pdf]
[Download (.nb)]
[Download (.pdf)]
[Download Lecture 1 (.pdf)]
[Download Lecture 2 (.pdf)]
[Download Lecture 3 (.pdf)]
[Download Lecture 4 (.pdf)]
[Download Lecture 5 (.pdf)]
Download Lecture 6 (.pdf)]
[Download Lecture 7_and_8 (.pdf)]
[Download_Lecture_9_and_10 (.pdf)]

Abstract

The Goodwin growth model is a particular dynamical system exhibiting limit cycle behaviour. I wish to add a measure of search and selection into the basic model by adapting one of the parameters of the model to be affected by an operator, such that the search process itself is a function of the relative slackness of the labour market summarised by the Phillips curve relationship modelled within the Goodwin model, and a new operator defined below, following Kauffman (1993) NK model of search and selection along fitness landscapes. The results of simulations show simply that the dynamics of the augmented Goodwin economy are essentially unchanged, though the search process itself is determined more by the macro-dynamics than the microeconomic conditions imposed on the actors in the system by the ruggedness of the landscape.

[Download this version of the paper]

I’ve helped to organise a workshop at the New School for Social Research in New York for next Monday. Here’s the program, and the main site for it is here. I’ll put up the readings when I get back, hopefully having read them!

Mechanisms of Inequality: Theory and Empirics
A one-day workshop at the New School for Social Research, New York

20 November, 2006, Wolff conference room, 65 5th Avenue, NY, 10003, The New School for Social Research

The Idea
The study of inequality and its relationship to the debate over the potential effects of the increased integration of the global economy has never been more relevant. This debate takes place in three overlapping spheres of inquiry: there are those researchers that theorize about the role of inequality and model its effects on economic fundamentals, those that measure the incidence of inequality across the globe, and those that critique these approaches. We wish to bring three leading exponents of each of these spheres of inquiry to the New School to instruct our students on the current best practice in each area. This will cement the New School’s current commitment to the study of inequality and aid doctoral students in their research by exposing them to the latest thinking from the best thinkers in the area. The purpose of the workshop is primarily educational: each speaker would be lecturing at some length to the students on different approaches to the study of inequality, and students would be free to ask questions and clarify technical points to get the most out of each session. A short ‘course pack’ will be made available by the lecturers beforehand to allow the students to make the most of their time in class. Computer labs will be made available if necessary. Entrance would be limited to 25-30 students, post-docs and faculty to make the class size more amenable to lecturing at the graduate level.

Programme
09:00 am–09:30 am Welcome, tea & coffee
09:30 am–11:00 am Dr. Jomo K.S., DESA, UN
“Theories of inequality in development”
11:00 am–11:30 am Tea & Coffee
11:30 am–01:00 pm Dr. Francisco H.G. Ferreira, The World Bank
“Inequality Empirics in Developing Countries: Measurement, Structure and Dynamics”
01:00 pm–2:00 pm  Lunch
2:00 pm–3.30 pm    Dr. Sanjay Reddy, Columbia University
“Choices of inequality indices and their implications”
3:30 pm–4:00 pm  Tea & Coffee
4:00 pm–5.30 pm  Roundtable Discussion

Watch the lecture as a movie or download the slides as a handout by right clicking the link below and choosing ’save target as’
EC4333_Lecture_7_handouts.pdf

Context: Emergency Physician ultrasound has recently emerged as a potential method for the clinical identification of acute cholecystitis. Objective: To determine the accuracy and cost-savings of Emergency Physician ultrasound performed by RDMS certified personnel in the detection of acute cholecystitis. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective analysis of quality assurance data from 37 patients that presented to the emergency department (ED) of an academic, tertiary care hospital with ‘positive’ ED ultrasounds of the RUQ from June 1, 2005 to February 30, 2006. Main Outcome Measure: Positive predictive value (PPV) for ED ultrasound to detect acute cholecystitis with subsequently confirmed surgical pathology.  Secondary outcomes were the hypothetical cost-savings achieved with singular use of ED ultrasound, without additional radiographic modalities, to identify and diagnose cholecystitis as extrapolated to the hospital, state, and national level. Results: Thirty-seven patients were studied.  Five patients were excluded due to prior diagnosis of cholecystitis, flight, or inoperative status.  Thirty-two patients, 15 males (47%) and 17 females (53%), exhibited new-onset RUQ pain with an ED ultrasound significant for cholecystitis.  Eight (25%) patients received no further radiographic tests and all exhibited positive surgical pathology.  Twenty-six (75%) patients had additional scans (radiology-performed ultrasound, DISIDA scan, both), of which 24 (92%) showed positive surgical pathology.  The PPV for ED ultrasound to detect acute cholecystitis with surgical pathology was 94%.  Based upon Medicare compensation indices, an opportunity cost of $6885.34 was incurred at our institution over 6 months as a result of additional scans.  Using conservative estimates of the prevalence of gallstones and US population distribution, this can be extrapolated to a $83 million potential cost-saving at the national level. Conclusions: ED ultrasounds performed by RDMS certified physicians are accurate and cost-efficient at identifying acute cholecystitis.  Larger, prospective studies are needed to more accurately determine the health-care costs associated with this phenomenon.

[Download the Paper Here]

Right Click and choose ’save target as’ for each of these files.
Excel file for exercise 1: NUIG_IRL_RGDP_EX1.xls
Lecture notes for lectures 1 and 2:kinsella_growththeorymacronotesv0.1.pdf
And the lecture notes as a mathematica notebook, without output: growththeorymacronotes_outputless_v0.1-1.nb

Please answer the following questions:

(a) (5 points) Write down the two fundamental equations of the Solow growth model, briefly
explaining each symbol, and graph their relationship.

(b) (20 points) Use the Solow growth model to explain how one-off efficiency gains due to
closer EU integration might be amplified by an increase in investment and savings.

This problem set is due in hardcopy (to the departmental office, EM023) and by email to stephen.kinsella@ul.ie by Monday 20 November.

Watch a video, or right click to download the .pdf
EC4333_Lecture6_handout.pdf
Please note because of recent website issues, I’ll be giving out paper versions of the lecture notes in class this week.

Right click below to download the sample exam.

[Download EC4333_Sample_Exam_Autumn_2006-1.pdf]

Please take account of what I write in the preamble to the sample exam:

The format, and only the format, of the Christmas exam will be the same. I reserve the right to examine any material covered in the course. There are ten short questions which must be answered, and 4 longer questions, of which you must answer three of four. The total marks available are 125.

Plan your study of the course accordingly.

• MathPages: Calculus and Differential Equations

• (tags: mathematics maths Reference Calculus differential)