Stephen Kinsella

Introduction

This is an interim lecture about stagflation, a situation we might actually find ourselves in sooner rather than later. We’ll define stagflation, look at episodes of stagflation in recent economic history, and study a model to explain and perhaps manage stagflation in the macroeconomy. We’ll relate the insights of these models to policies you might see implemented in the US Economy in the near future, and talk about what this might mean for Ireland’s economy going forward. Get your slides and handouts while they’re hot.

Slides

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Handouts

EC6012 Lecture 9 Handout

Click the link below for links, a timeline, and a link to the paper we’ll use in the paper.

Timeline:

Sept 18:

1. CPI (consumer price index) 2.3%

1. PPI (producer price index) 2.3%

1. PCE (personal consumption expenditure) deflator 2.5%

1. Gold $714

Oct 31

1. CPI 3.5%

1. PPI 6.1%

1. PCE deflator 3.0%

1. Gold $790

Dec 11

1. CPI 4.1%

1. PPI 6.3%

1. PCE deflator 3.6%

1. Gold $811

Jan 22

1. CPI 4.3%

1. PPI 7.4%

1. PCE deflator 3.7%

1. Gold $893

Jan 30

1. CPI 4.3%

1. PPI 7.4%

1. PCE deflator 3.7%

1. Gold $921

Mar 18

1. CPI 4.0%

1. PPI 6.4%

1. PCE deflator 3.7%

1. Gold $1004

Links

(blogs to get the current situation)

Economist’s View

This Train Doesn’t Stop

Delong: supply shocks and stagflation

The 70s Look: stagflation

Attitudes Lead, CPI Follows

The Inflation Fighting Fed?

The Bernanke-Blinder Model (google books)