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	<title>Comments on: Going Nuclear</title>
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	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 14 Mar 2010 13:31:39 -0400</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>By: Stephen</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13607</link>
		<dc:creator>Stephen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 23:53:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13607</guid>
		<description>@ Soylent, thanks very much for this information, I just came across your post now, apologies for not replying sooner!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Soylent, thanks very much for this information, I just came across your post now, apologies for not replying sooner!</p>
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		<title>By: Soylent</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13557</link>
		<dc:creator>Soylent</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jan 2010 15:10:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13557</guid>
		<description>Stephen, LWRs were never meant to be more than a stop gap. It turned out that there was a lot more uranium than what was at first suspected; the move to deep burn and breeder reactors was stalled.

The current cost of yellowcake uranium is ~$50/lb, that&#039;s equivalent to ~$1 per barrel of oil if you consume only 1% of the energy(a modern LWR) or ~1 cent per barrel if you consume 100% of the energy content. Uranium is very widely distributed in the crust, with most of the uranium in lower grade deposits(see Deffeyes and mcGregor, &quot;World uranium resources&quot;). Fuel is a small part of the cost of operating a nuclear reactor, and of that cost yellowcake is just a small part(you pay mostly for the conversion, enrichment, deconversion and fabrication of fuel elements).

The 5.5 million tonne estimate is predicated on a price of yellowcake less than $130 per lb, but even a light-water reactor can support a much higher cost of yellowcake than this without significantly hurting its economics.

Eventually one of the alternative approaches(deep burn pebble beds, lead-bismuth cooled fast breeder reactors, molten salt epithermal breeder reactors etc.) will be well developed enough and uranium expensive enough that it makes sense make the switch over. 

The uranium and thorium in a tonne of average crust(just your typical rock) is equivalent to over 100 barrels of oil when fully fissioned(which will require a combination of different reactor technologies).

It will take the better part of an eon to work our way down to such poor ore-grades absent a huge expansion into energy intensive space exploration(even this has the potential to yield more energy resources). During this unimaginable stretch of time it is likely that we&#039;ll develop compact, cheap nuclear fusion or some other alternative that is just plain better than nuclear fission. First generation fusion reactors may not have sufficiently high Q to make it on their own; they might be fusion-fission hybrids that produce energetic neutrons from D-T fusion, which can directly fission just about any actinide.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stephen, LWRs were never meant to be more than a stop gap. It turned out that there was a lot more uranium than what was at first suspected; the move to deep burn and breeder reactors was stalled.</p>
<p>The current cost of yellowcake uranium is ~$50/lb, that&#8217;s equivalent to ~$1 per barrel of oil if you consume only 1% of the energy(a modern LWR) or ~1 cent per barrel if you consume 100% of the energy content. Uranium is very widely distributed in the crust, with most of the uranium in lower grade deposits(see Deffeyes and mcGregor, &#8220;World uranium resources&#8221;). Fuel is a small part of the cost of operating a nuclear reactor, and of that cost yellowcake is just a small part(you pay mostly for the conversion, enrichment, deconversion and fabrication of fuel elements).</p>
<p>The 5.5 million tonne estimate is predicated on a price of yellowcake less than $130 per lb, but even a light-water reactor can support a much higher cost of yellowcake than this without significantly hurting its economics.</p>
<p>Eventually one of the alternative approaches(deep burn pebble beds, lead-bismuth cooled fast breeder reactors, molten salt epithermal breeder reactors etc.) will be well developed enough and uranium expensive enough that it makes sense make the switch over. </p>
<p>The uranium and thorium in a tonne of average crust(just your typical rock) is equivalent to over 100 barrels of oil when fully fissioned(which will require a combination of different reactor technologies).</p>
<p>It will take the better part of an eon to work our way down to such poor ore-grades absent a huge expansion into energy intensive space exploration(even this has the potential to yield more energy resources). During this unimaginable stretch of time it is likely that we&#8217;ll develop compact, cheap nuclear fusion or some other alternative that is just plain better than nuclear fission. First generation fusion reactors may not have sufficiently high Q to make it on their own; they might be fusion-fission hybrids that produce energetic neutrons from D-T fusion, which can directly fission just about any actinide.</p>
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		<title>By: Soylent</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13556</link>
		<dc:creator>Soylent</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jan 2010 14:19:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13556</guid>
		<description>&quot;From the mining of the uranium to the shutdown of a energy reactor. The production of energy is a net ZERO proposition. It’s a fraud, with the dirty secret that you will have to live with the contaminated waste for hundreds of years.&quot;

No, YOU are the one perpetrating a fraud Branedy.

Here&#039;s the EPD for that&#039;s ~10 miles from my location: http://www.environdec.com/reg/021/ , Go to EDP content tab -&gt; 3.4.

If you passed 6th grade introduction to physics you&#039;ll know how to convert units. Even comparing apples to oranges(i.e. adding the heat from the fossil fuels as if it was equivalent to electricity from a nuclear plant, which is unfair to the nuclear plant), the energy gain is ~80. If you try to be a bit more fair and convert the fossil fuels to electricty at the relevant efficiency(super critical coal plants, CCGT for oil and gas etc.) you get an energy gain of ~200.

In other words, you&#039;re full of shit.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;From the mining of the uranium to the shutdown of a energy reactor. The production of energy is a net ZERO proposition. It’s a fraud, with the dirty secret that you will have to live with the contaminated waste for hundreds of years.&#8221;</p>
<p>No, YOU are the one perpetrating a fraud Branedy.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the EPD for that&#8217;s ~10 miles from my location: <a href="http://www.environdec.com/reg/021/" rel="nofollow">http://www.environdec.com/reg/021/</a> , Go to EDP content tab -&gt; 3.4.</p>
<p>If you passed 6th grade introduction to physics you&#8217;ll know how to convert units. Even comparing apples to oranges(i.e. adding the heat from the fossil fuels as if it was equivalent to electricity from a nuclear plant, which is unfair to the nuclear plant), the energy gain is ~80. If you try to be a bit more fair and convert the fossil fuels to electricty at the relevant efficiency(super critical coal plants, CCGT for oil and gas etc.) you get an energy gain of ~200.</p>
<p>In other words, you&#8217;re full of shit.</p>
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		<title>By: Renewable Energy Will Provide 500,000 Vacancies</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13486</link>
		<dc:creator>Renewable Energy Will Provide 500,000 Vacancies</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 26 Dec 2009 19:59:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13486</guid>
		<description>[...] Going Nuclear (stephenkinsella.net) [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Going Nuclear (stephenkinsella.net) [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Stephen</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13406</link>
		<dc:creator>Stephen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:55:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13406</guid>
		<description>Hi Fergus, 
It always makes sense to cost these things out-on paper, and if the costs and benefits do work out positively (which I highly doubt, see above), then it makes sense to go with the plan. But not discussing it or attempting an evaluation doesn&#039;t make sense either.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Fergus,<br />
It always makes sense to cost these things out-on paper, and if the costs and benefits do work out positively (which I highly doubt, see above), then it makes sense to go with the plan. But not discussing it or attempting an evaluation doesn&#8217;t make sense either.</p>
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		<title>By: Fergus O'Rourke</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13405</link>
		<dc:creator>Fergus O'Rourke</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:58:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13405</guid>
		<description>Given your first point, with which I agree (and to which I would add that even a small nuclear plant would be too big for our market), I don&#039;t see how your last sentence makes sense.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Given your first point, with which I agree (and to which I would add that even a small nuclear plant would be too big for our market), I don&#8217;t see how your last sentence makes sense.</p>
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		<title>By: Stephen</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13400</link>
		<dc:creator>Stephen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:17:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13400</guid>
		<description>Hi Branedy, I haven&#039;t touched the blue stuff just yet, I promise--can you give me a URL or two to get me started? I&#039;m all over the Worldchanging fora, etc, but perhaps I&#039;m missing the technical stuff from sheer lack of terminology. Happy to read/discuss anything about this, and to learn more!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi Branedy, I haven&#8217;t touched the blue stuff just yet, I promise&#8211;can you give me a URL or two to get me started? I&#8217;m all over the Worldchanging fora, etc, but perhaps I&#8217;m missing the technical stuff from sheer lack of terminology. Happy to read/discuss anything about this, and to learn more!</p>
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		<title>By: Branedy</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13399</link>
		<dc:creator>Branedy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:08:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13399</guid>
		<description>First, having worked at a U.S. Energy Research Lab in the most radioactively contaminated site in the free world (Handford) I can tell you that the current Fission nuclear energy production is, for a fact, an example of a big battery. 

From the mining of the uranium  to the shutdown of a energy reactor. The production of energy is a net ZERO proposition. It&#039;s a fraud, with the dirty secret that you will have to live with the contaminated waste for hundreds of years. 

What you put into the &#039;system&#039; fossil fuels, manpower etc, will &#039;gain&#039; you nothing and could better be used to forward other energy development. EVEN the carbon footprint that might be saved from the actual reactor will be wasted in the ore refinement processes that lead up it it. 

The only way this technology could be useful, is when Fusion can be made productive. 

I know you have been drinking the Koolaid, so don&#039;t believe me, do the due diligence. An hour with Google will tell you more than you can believe.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First, having worked at a U.S. Energy Research Lab in the most radioactively contaminated site in the free world (Handford) I can tell you that the current Fission nuclear energy production is, for a fact, an example of a big battery. </p>
<p>From the mining of the uranium  to the shutdown of a energy reactor. The production of energy is a net ZERO proposition. It&#8217;s a fraud, with the dirty secret that you will have to live with the contaminated waste for hundreds of years. </p>
<p>What you put into the &#8217;system&#8217; fossil fuels, manpower etc, will &#8216;gain&#8217; you nothing and could better be used to forward other energy development. EVEN the carbon footprint that might be saved from the actual reactor will be wasted in the ore refinement processes that lead up it it. </p>
<p>The only way this technology could be useful, is when Fusion can be made productive. </p>
<p>I know you have been drinking the Koolaid, so don&#8217;t believe me, do the due diligence. An hour with Google will tell you more than you can believe.</p>
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		<title>By: Stephen</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13398</link>
		<dc:creator>Stephen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:00:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13398</guid>
		<description>Hi James, thanks for the comment, I&#039;ll check out the book&#039;s blog now. I&#039;m always interested to know more about these issues. Regarding the knowledge deficit, while the materials, etc, could largely be sourced from Ireland (or at least from Europe), the expertise required would have to come from either France or Japan, largely, meaning we&#039;d be paying out billions to other economies for this plant, which doesn&#039;t make sense as there are 10 new ones being built on our doorstep.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi James, thanks for the comment, I&#8217;ll check out the book&#8217;s blog now. I&#8217;m always interested to know more about these issues. Regarding the knowledge deficit, while the materials, etc, could largely be sourced from Ireland (or at least from Europe), the expertise required would have to come from either France or Japan, largely, meaning we&#8217;d be paying out billions to other economies for this plant, which doesn&#8217;t make sense as there are 10 new ones being built on our doorstep.</p>
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		<title>By: James Aach</title>
		<link>http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/11/16/going-nuclear/#comment-13393</link>
		<dc:creator>James Aach</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:56:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stephenkinsella.net/?p=2997#comment-13393</guid>
		<description>I found your comment on not having the knowledge base for nuclear in your country to be interesting - that doesn&#039;t seem to be an aspect that comes up much when countries talk of taking it on.  But of greater importance perhaps are the cultural aspects - do workers in a particular culture tend to be question authority or be robots?

FYI:  Stewart Brand was also kind enough to endorse my book &quot;Rad Decision:  A Novel of Nuclear Power&quot;.  
One thing most pundits, activists, scientists and reporters have in common is a lack of understanding regarding how this power source is operated in the real world.    Nuclear is not The Simpsons and it&#039;s not Star Trek.  To provide some clarity, I&#039;ve written a novel aimed at the general reader, based on my 20+ years in the US nuclear industry.  My book covers the people, politics and technology of this controversial topic, looking at both the good AND the bad (Chernobyl, TMI, etc.)  &quot;Rad Decision&quot; is free online, and is also in paperback. See the homepage for reader comments - they seem to like it for both its story and information.  I think there are many possibilities for our future, both with and without nuclear power, but I also believe we&#039;ll make better decisions about our energy future if we first understand our energy present.   http://RadDecision.blogspot.com

&quot;I&#039;d like to see Rad Decision widely read.&quot; - Stewart Brand</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I found your comment on not having the knowledge base for nuclear in your country to be interesting &#8211; that doesn&#8217;t seem to be an aspect that comes up much when countries talk of taking it on.  But of greater importance perhaps are the cultural aspects &#8211; do workers in a particular culture tend to be question authority or be robots?</p>
<p>FYI:  Stewart Brand was also kind enough to endorse my book &#8220;Rad Decision:  A Novel of Nuclear Power&#8221;.<br />
One thing most pundits, activists, scientists and reporters have in common is a lack of understanding regarding how this power source is operated in the real world.    Nuclear is not The Simpsons and it&#8217;s not Star Trek.  To provide some clarity, I&#8217;ve written a novel aimed at the general reader, based on my 20+ years in the US nuclear industry.  My book covers the people, politics and technology of this controversial topic, looking at both the good AND the bad (Chernobyl, TMI, etc.)  &#8220;Rad Decision&#8221; is free online, and is also in paperback. See the homepage for reader comments &#8211; they seem to like it for both its story and information.  I think there are many possibilities for our future, both with and without nuclear power, but I also believe we&#8217;ll make better decisions about our energy future if we first understand our energy present.   <a href="http://RadDecision.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow">http://RadDecision.blogspot.com</a></p>
<p>&#8220;I&#8217;d like to see Rad Decision widely read.&#8221; &#8211; Stewart Brand</p>
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