Posts Tagged: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

EC4004_2009 / EC4333_2009 — 2 Comments
5
Nov 09

Distribution of Income in Ireland

OECD Inequality

From OECD

This week in 2 classes (EC4004 and EC4333), I talked about Lorenz curves, Gini distributions, and income inequality.

The recent OECD report shows the inequality in who’s contributing to income tax receipts.

The chart shows Ireland is a very unequal country when it comes to paying tax– the rich pay most.

(HT Ronan for the update)

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28
Aug 08

Looking at Ireland’s National Income, 2002-2007

The Spire of Dublin symbolises the modernisati...

August saw the release of the National Income and Product Accounts for 2007. A few choice graphs for y’all this morning. First, we’ve got the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) graph from 2002-2007, valued at different prices.

GDP is really the sum of the price, P, of final goods and services, i, in a given period, times the quantity of those goods and services, Q_{i}, so if there are n goods in the economy,

\text{GDP} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} P_{i} Q_{i}.

GDP is based on prices, which change all time, so the number is chain weighted to take account of those price changes. That’s why you see two bars in the figures below from page xvi of the CSO’s NIE report. 

 

Ireland\'s GDP, 2002-2007Two things should strike you reading the graph from left to right. First, just look at how rich we are. Think about how this statistic translates into tangible differences in people’s living standards. It’s a remarkable thing, when you consider, say, our European neighbours. Here’s a graph of GDP per capita (dividing total output by the number of people in the economy to take account of different population sizes) for the OECD countries.

GDP per capita

What do you see? You see a very rich Irish nation, compared to its peers. We know this, but it’s important to be reminded. 

Next up, we’ve got personal expenditure. Again, notice the increases over time, since the end of the Celtic Tiger period around 2002. 

What is the bottom line? The national income accounts show a robust and wealthy economy, which has some overvalued assets, and is undergoing a revaluation of those assets by 2007. The wealth created in the previous years, however, doesn’t go away—it’s all still there, on our backs, on our roads, over our heads, in our bank accounts. We’ve just decided the economy’s heading for another recession. 

Number to watch: personal expenditure 2007 as compared to 2008. This will tell you what households are spending, how much, and what on. It’ll make for some interesting reading. 

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14
Aug 08

Thinking about Climate Change in Ireland

One global climate model's reconstruction of t...

A barrage of emails has me thinking about climate change in Ireland, what we can expect, and more importantly, what we might do about it right now. And I’m not thinking about recycling. I’m thinking about policy responses centered around forward planning, a sort of flanking move on the most likely effects of climate change.

What’s most likely to happen to us?

Ireland’s Scale

First, It’s important to note that one of the key numbers here is 2 degrees. A 2 degree increase in mean monthly temperatures, with a carbon measurement of between 500-550 parts per million, is about the median estimate of what we’ll see happening to the Irish climate. Right now we’re looking at 400 parts per million in the Irish atmosphere, most of the time. Another important number is 5 degrees increase over the next 100 years. It’s game over time if that happens, we’re talking global catastrophe.

ICARUS issued a report on the likely effects of climate change in Ireland, and here’s what they had to say:

  • Current mean January figures are predicted to increase by 1.5oC mid century with a further increase of 0.5oC-1.0oC by 2075.
  • By 2055, the extreme south and south west coasts may have a mean January temperature of 7.5-8.0oC. By then, winters in Northern Ireland and in the north Midlands will be similar to those presently experienced along the south coast.
  • Since temperature is a primary meteorological parameter, secondary parameters such as frost frequency and growing season length and efficiency can be expected to undergo considerable changes over this time interval.
  • July temperatures will increase by 2.5oC by 2055 and a further increase of 1.0oC by 2075 can be expected. Maximum July temperatures in the order of 22.5oC will prevail generally with areas in the central Midlands experiencing maximum July temperatures of 24.5oC.
  • Marked decreases in rainfall during the summer and early autumn months across eastern and central Ireland are predicted. Nationally, these are of the order of 25% with decreases of over 40% in some parts of the south-east.
  • Overall increases in precipitation are predicted for the winter months of December- February. On average these amount to 11%. The greatest increases are suggested for the north west where increases of approximately 20% are suggested by mid century. Little change is suggested as occurring on the east coast and in the eastern part of the Central Plain.

McGrath et al [pages 22--29] from the EPA,  had this to say:

Based on a stripped down version of a German climate simulation model, the ECHAM4 model. They found:

  1. Mean monthly temperatures will increase from 2021-2060 by 1.25-1.5 degrees;
  2. There will be changes in weather patterns, most likely more rain in winter and less in June and July;
  3. Patterns will change most markedly in the South East and East.

It’s important to note that one of the key numbers here is 2 degrees increase in mean monthly temperatures, with a carbon measurement of between 500-550 parts per million. Right now we’re looking at 400 parts per million in the Irish atmosphere, most of the time.

Local Scale

Change.ie has a great infographic showing the effects on local communities of climate change. Limerick, for instance, can expect increased flooding more of the year round. Awesome.

Economic Effects

Page 3 of Chapter 4 of the OECD‘s April 2008 report (.pdf) projects a 2.8–4 degree increase over the next 100 years. The report also cites Stern’s 2008 report of Global warming costing up to 10% of world GDP over the next 50 years. If we experienced that in Ireland in 2020, it would bring us back to 2001 levels of  wealth. Basically a generation’s work lost, just because of climate change’s direct effects.

I’ll post more on this when I get time, but it’s a very interesting area to think about. So I will.

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