Electoral timing, expectation setting, and taxation policy shouldn't be mixed when the economy is this fragile.
Time is ticking, coalition politics is hard, and the political business cycle is real, but so is the potential this government has for real change.
Sod the ratings agencies.
Bond prices make no sense as an indicator of economic health.
Reference-dependent expectation changes affect consumption today, and growth tomorrow. Less technical explanations and why these things matter for fiscal policy.
Like it or not, we are part of a cycle of credit expansion and contraction that we will surely see again if we don't sort out the incentives those within our institutions face.
Not a popular point to make, I know, but the tracker mortgage book needs sorting to get the real economy back on track.
Including Slides and comments by Neil Lancastle, my discussant, all up here.
Or, why thinking about the public/private/rest of world balance matters in a society that seems intent on remaining exactly the same post-crisis.
Seek Rent, and Ye Shall Find.