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The modern financial system is debt based. Since 1971, the financial system has had no tie to gold or any other physical standard. Through fractional reserve banking, money is created through the issuance of debt. The more debt that is issued, the more money there is, and the more demand there is for goods and services (if you believe the quantity theory of money).

As long as the system is growing, the system works well, because paying back debts with interest does not put too great a strain on the system. Want to see why? Look here.

When the economic system is growing, it is possible to pay back debt with interest, because even after paying interest, there is enough money left for other things.

For a business or government rolling over debt, cash flow continues to increase. When the economy hits limits, such as an oil supply that cannot grow fast enough to support the growth needed to keep the treadmill going, repaying the debt with interest becomes a huge burden. These graphs are from the Oil Drum, and they illustrate the point nicely.

The Irish economy is forecast to contract by 4-6% this year (i.e., GDP growth will be be negative), and we are in a deflation of at least 2-4% as well, so prices are falling, making the real value of our cash balances rise, but also making our borrowings that bit more expensive. This happened in another country, not too long ago. We live in interesting times.

Link to charts

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December 10th, 2019

Using Social Media to Boost your profile

My talk for the social media summit is here. 

November 5th, 2019

Innospace UL talk

Thanks for the invitation to speak, the whole talk is here. 

October 9th, 2019

Understanding the macroeconomy podcast

I really enjoyed my interview with Dr Niall Farrell of the Irish Economics Podcast. You can listen to it here:

September 15th, 2018

Identifying Mechanisms Underlying Peer Effects on Multiplex Networks

New paper with Hang Xiong and Diane Payne just published in JASS: Abstract: We separately identify two mechanisms underlying peer […]

March 24th, 2018

Capital inflows, crisis and recovery in small open economies

Our latest paper, and my first with my Melbourne School of Government affiliation (plus my UL one, of course) is […]

March 7th, 2018

Southern Charm

What's it like working at Australia's number one university, ranked 23rd in the world for social sciences? It's pretty cool, […]

February 7th, 2018

Freedom interview

I did an interview for an app I love using called Freedom. Basically I pay them to block off the […]

December 10th, 2017

Marian Finucane Interview

I did a fairly long interview about the experience of moving to Australia with my family. You can listen here.

November 17th, 2017

Increasing wages for macroeconomic stability

My first piece for the conversation is here. I'm arguing the economy would benefit from wage increases, paid for from […]

November 14th, 2017

Health Workforce Planning Models, Tools and Processes: An Evidence Review

Below is my recorded talk, here are my slides, and the handout for the 4th Global Forum on Human Resources for […]

October 5th, 2017

Aalborg Keynote

My talk from the fourth Nordic Post Keynesian conference is up. The full list of keynotes is here.

October 1st, 2017

AIST Debt and Demography talk

(Apparently Limerick is in the UK now!)

September 7th, 2017

My AIST Keynote: Europe Exposed

In which a camera man faints halfway through--he's OK though, I checked afterwards!

July 22nd, 2017

MacGill Summer School Speech

My speech at the MacGill Summer School is here. Thanks to Joe Muholland for inviting me to speak.

May 25th, 2017

Business Post Articles

All my Sunday Business Post articles (back to 2014/5, when I joined the paper) are available here, behind a paywall, and […]

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