Below is my recorded talk, here are my slides, and the handout for the 4th Global Forum on Human Resources for Health. My subject is Health Workforce Planning Models, Tools and Processes: An Evidence Review. The full report for the Health Research Board the talk is based on, co-authored with Dr Rachel Kiersey, is here. Thanks very much to Gabrielle Jacob from the Department of Health for the invitation to speak. I'm sorry I'm not able to be there to learn from such distinguished panellists.
Below are my slides (in .pdf) from the closing keynote of the Applied Stock-Flow consistent Macro-modelling summer school. I'm told a video of the lecture will be online at some point as well, I'll pop it up here then. SFC_Strategy_Kingston_Aug_2016
Our paper just published in Frontiers of Public Health.
Models in economics and finance typically use time series graphs as model outputs. In the light of the recent crisis and policy makers’ sometimes-flawed approaches to the resolution of the crisis, this paper argues simple line graphs do not contain enough information to help policy makers adequately understand the evolution of their economy. We generate new graphical representations using the example of the Irish economic crisis based on a new model of the Irish economy, built from its national accounts. These visualisations are newer, data-dense outputs of a new class of accounting models. In these accounting models the many connections between the real and financial sides of the economy are much more explicit, the impact of austerity on the Irish economy post-2009 are much more transparent, and the resulting recovery is clearly visible in dashboard form to policymakers.
Our new working paper is out in the Levy working paper series:
We examine the relationship between changes in a country’s public sector fiscal position and inequality at the top and bottom of the income distribution during the age of austerity (2006–13). We use a parametric Lorenz curve model and Gini-like indices of inequality as our measures to assess distributional changes. Based on the EU’s Statistics on Income and Living Conditions SLIC and International Monetary Fund data for 12 European countries, we find that more severe adjustments to the cyclically adjusted primary balance (i.e., more austerity) are associated with a more unequal distribution of income driven by rising inequality at the top. The data also weakly suggest a decrease in inequality at the bottom. The distributional impact of austerity measures reflects the reliance on regressive policies, and likely produces increased incentives for rent seeking while reducing incentives for workers to increase productivity.
We examine the macroeconomic factors associated with financialisation in Ireland and Iceland from the perspective of international capital flows. To understand financialisation in the two countries we construct three ARDL models using three aspects of financialisation: financial depth, credit growth and deposit liabilities of the financial sector. Focusing on the current account, we find that financialisation is associated with an increase in foreign rentiers’ profit due to excessive international borrowing. Our measures of financialisation indicate that trade openness, also a measure of globalisation, has a negative relationship with financialisation in Iceland, while in Ireland the relationship is positive. Our results also suggest that both countries experienced an increase in the wage share along with rapidly increasing household debt in Ireland and increasing non financial corporate debt in Iceland. We conclude that institutional differences played a vital role in the solutions to the crises which destabilised the economies of Ireland and Iceland. We use the institutional differences between the two economies and suggest policy prescriptions to limit the scale and scope of similar crises in small open economies.
I have a short paper on the Irish experience of austerity in the latest CESifo forum.
This is part of the Rannis project funded earlier this year. Can't wait to get started.
Details at the bottom of the page, there will be *much* more on this project in the near future.
Here are the slides of a talk I gave at Complexity Models for Systemic Instabilities and Crises at the Lorenz Centre in Leiden. PDFs of all the slides are here, this work is supported by the Irish Research Council under it's New Foundations programme.
Colleagues and I have won funding from Rannis, the Icelandic research office, to build a stock flow consistent model of the Icelandic economy. The money will be used for PhD scholarships here and in Iceland. Can't wait to get started.
Our new paper (funded by INET) is here.
Abstract: Stock ﬂow consistent macroeconomic models suffer from the lack of a coherent estimation method due to the complicated nature of the modeling process. This paper provides a candidate estimation method that determines the values of each stock and flow simultaneously by analytically solving any stock flow model, and converting the estimation into a global minimization problem in p − k dimensions. We describe the method and apply it to a canonical model using real-world data. The method estimates the parameters and flows reliably.