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CHONGQING, CHINA - OCTOBER 9: A black swan re...

We don't live in a world of certainty, but its exact opposite, so we must change the theory to account for the presence of the unknown in economic life. We have not been too successful at this, but the theory remains, and we will learn it.

The mainstream theory of how we deal with choice under uncertainty and our interactions with others is built onĀ probability theory. Click below for a podcast, further lecture notes, and here for a .pdf of the slides.

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