Posts Tagged: Global warming

General / Rants / irelandin2050 — 1 Comment
28
Sep 08

A Nuclear Ireland?

Gerard posts on an issue I’ve been working on for something else—the need for a growing economy to provide itself with power without burning fossil fuels. Even together, solar, wind, wave, hydroelectric, and other greener technologies aren’t yet up to the task of  supplying Ireland’s needs, as the government’s 2007 white paper has shown. As James Lovelock has controversially written, in the short to medium term, say 25 years or so, nuclear power is the only option for advanced economies to grow without fossil fuels. 

Let me elaborate.

Ireland has repeatedly rejected the construction of a nuclear power plant, for a host of reasons, most of them irrational, take this for example, or factually incorrect, see this, or just twaddle, see this. 

I think if the benefits of nuclear power were put to the Irish people in a consistent and intelligent way, they would respond with a different answer. 

The benefits of nuclear power are cheap, reliable energy which is independent of fossil fuel usage and, as we’ve seen, price changes. Not only does nuclear power have negligible CO2 (global warming) emissions, but Western nuclear power has never killed a member of the public or had any measurable impact on public health, miles of column inches to the contrary. France is the shining example of the benefits of nuclear power—78% of French electricity is generated using nuclear fuel.

The costs of nuclear power are, in this order, high level waste disposal, risk of proliferation, severe accidents, and terrorism. Obviously, Ireland would not be subject to most of these risks as it is a (largely) neutral country. 

Running out of uranium isn’t really an issue either: there are approximately 14,750,000 tonnes of the stuff on Earth. Last year we used close to 67,000 tonnes of this. With type four fast breeder reactor technology, we’d have practically unlimited energy resources into the 22nd century [2]. 

Right now, our CO2 emission are 24% higher than our 1990 level. Our Kyoto protocol agreement is for 13% increases, and our energy needs are set to increase by 25% by 2015 [1]. So this is not a problem which will go away, as this ESRI report shows. Ireland is contributing to climate change in much the same way as India and China, albeit on a smaller scale. 

Pollution is the price of development. 

It’s fair to say nuclear power isn’t the solution, but there is no solution in the medium term without it, as we transition away from fossil fuel power solutions. Those electric cars won’t charge themselves. 

I’m not a fan of nuclear power, but there are ways to buy this power from abroad. As Gerard reports, a 25bn pound investment in nuclear power will take place in the UK in the next 10 years, thanks to a recent takeover. This power will need buyers. If it is priced properly, Ireland might be in a position to purchase the benefits of nuclear power without incurring many of its costs. 

Related articles
UL — No Comments
3
Sep 08

Australian Experiences of Climate Change & Government Solutions to the problem

Coal Power Station in Tampa FLImage via Wikipedia

Further reading on the water shortage issue I posted about earlier on convinces me that thinking about water shortages is not advanced enough to be credible.

This story, hoisted from a comment at Watering Down, is instructive:

Sydney’s huge Warragamba dam was completed in early 1960 when the population was about one million. We have had rapic[sic] population growth and now, with no new storage facilities being built, we suffer occasional water shortages.

These water shortages are not caused by the population quadrupling. No way. They are really caused by fossil fuel induced AGW causing drought. No politician in Australia would seriously propose building anything as radical as a new dam. Instead, we are building a huge sea water filtration which might provide 10% of Sydney’s fresh water needs – if required. The recent torrential rain has reduced the urgency of the plant but population is still growing and it might get dry again at some time in the future.

The filtration plant will be powered by electricity from our coal burning power plants.

You couldn’t make this stuff up if you tried.

No you couldn’t.

Research — No Comments
14
Aug 08

Thinking about Climate Change in Ireland

One global climate model's reconstruction of t...

A barrage of emails has me thinking about climate change in Ireland, what we can expect, and more importantly, what we might do about it right now. And I’m not thinking about recycling. I’m thinking about policy responses centered around forward planning, a sort of flanking move on the most likely effects of climate change.

What’s most likely to happen to us?

Ireland’s Scale

First, It’s important to note that one of the key numbers here is 2 degrees. A 2 degree increase in mean monthly temperatures, with a carbon measurement of between 500-550 parts per million, is about the median estimate of what we’ll see happening to the Irish climate. Right now we’re looking at 400 parts per million in the Irish atmosphere, most of the time. Another important number is 5 degrees increase over the next 100 years. It’s game over time if that happens, we’re talking global catastrophe.

ICARUS issued a report on the likely effects of climate change in Ireland, and here’s what they had to say:

  • Current mean January figures are predicted to increase by 1.5oC mid century with a further increase of 0.5oC-1.0oC by 2075.
  • By 2055, the extreme south and south west coasts may have a mean January temperature of 7.5-8.0oC. By then, winters in Northern Ireland and in the north Midlands will be similar to those presently experienced along the south coast.
  • Since temperature is a primary meteorological parameter, secondary parameters such as frost frequency and growing season length and efficiency can be expected to undergo considerable changes over this time interval.
  • July temperatures will increase by 2.5oC by 2055 and a further increase of 1.0oC by 2075 can be expected. Maximum July temperatures in the order of 22.5oC will prevail generally with areas in the central Midlands experiencing maximum July temperatures of 24.5oC.
  • Marked decreases in rainfall during the summer and early autumn months across eastern and central Ireland are predicted. Nationally, these are of the order of 25% with decreases of over 40% in some parts of the south-east.
  • Overall increases in precipitation are predicted for the winter months of December- February. On average these amount to 11%. The greatest increases are suggested for the north west where increases of approximately 20% are suggested by mid century. Little change is suggested as occurring on the east coast and in the eastern part of the Central Plain.

McGrath et al [pages 22--29] from the EPA,  had this to say:

Based on a stripped down version of a German climate simulation model, the ECHAM4 model. They found:

  1. Mean monthly temperatures will increase from 2021-2060 by 1.25-1.5 degrees;
  2. There will be changes in weather patterns, most likely more rain in winter and less in June and July;
  3. Patterns will change most markedly in the South East and East.

It’s important to note that one of the key numbers here is 2 degrees increase in mean monthly temperatures, with a carbon measurement of between 500-550 parts per million. Right now we’re looking at 400 parts per million in the Irish atmosphere, most of the time.

Local Scale

Change.ie has a great infographic showing the effects on local communities of climate change. Limerick, for instance, can expect increased flooding more of the year round. Awesome.

Economic Effects

Page 3 of Chapter 4 of the OECD‘s April 2008 report (.pdf) projects a 2.8–4 degree increase over the next 100 years. The report also cites Stern’s 2008 report of Global warming costing up to 10% of world GDP over the next 50 years. If we experienced that in Ireland in 2020, it would bring us back to 2001 levels of  wealth. Basically a generation’s work lost, just because of climate change’s direct effects.

I’ll post more on this when I get time, but it’s a very interesting area to think about. So I will.

Related articles